ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Chinese paramilitary officers in front of the Urumqi train station May 1. (Reuters) Summary At 7 p.m. on the evening of April 30, a bomb detonated in the midst of a crowd leaving the south train station in Urumqi, the capital of China's Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. Information on the incident is limited, but initial reports suggest three people were killed and some 79 were injured in the attack. The attack was simple and conducted against a soft target. A number of actors could be responsible, from organized groups such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement to a lone wolf. Attacks such as this are nearly impossible to prevent if Uighur militants have the manpower and will to carry them out. Analysis While official reports have been scarce, photos from the scene published on various Internet sites allow us to draw some analytical conclusions. First, the photographs make it clear that the device was small and likely simple in construction. It...

Tanks participate in a joint Gulf Cooperation Council military exercise north of Kuwait City.(YASSER AL-ZAYYAT/AFP/Getty Images) Summary In recent months, reports have circulated suggesting that the Gulf Cooperation Council , led by Saudi Arabia, wants to form an "Arab NATO" of sorts by establishing an expanded military alliance, principally between itself and the Arab kingdoms of Morocco and Jordan. With Iran and its allies ascendant and the United States pulling back its involvement in the region, there is no shortage of reasons for the Arab states to want to build out their military capabilities through an alliance. However, the widely varying interests of the individual states will make it difficult if not impossible for any potential defensive bloc to take collective action even if it is eventually formed. Analysis The Gulf monarchies have good cause to seek the added security of a defensive alliance. Since the Arab Spring began in 2011, the Arab world has become increas...

Ukrainian separatists block the road between Kramatorsk and Slovyansk to prevent the Ukrainian National Guard from advancing May 2. (GENYA SAVILOV/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Military and diplomatic factors have created significant obstacles for Kiev in its attempts to regain control of eastern Ukraine , but domestic politics have pressured the government to restart operations and reject Russia's demands. Circumstances dictate that Ukrainian forces attempt to systematically clear occupied buildings in eastern cities, a proposition both difficult and costly in terms of time and human life. Meanwhile, the Russian government is warning that a political solution will no longer be possible if Kiev continues to press a military solution. With presidential elections scheduled for May 25, the interim government -- dominated by the Fatherland party -- is under growing pressure to show that it can defend Ukraine's territorial integrity. Fatherland's presidential candidate, Yulia Timos...

Summary Brazil will host the 2014 World Cup from June 12 to July 13 in a dozen of its cities, including Brasilia, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Brazil hosted the World Cup in 1950 without any major incident, but since then the country has transformed in many ways , including becoming one of the world's largest economies. It still struggles with corruption, rampant crime and occasional bouts of social unrest, however, and criminal and subversive elements will no doubt exploit the opportunities created by the approaching World Cup. This global event will face the threats of crime against spectators, online attacks, transportation disruptions and civil unrest in the form of protests. Analysis Brazil's major security concerns are murder, drug trafficking , prostitution, protests and petty crime. Much of this occurs in its dangerous slums, known as favelas, but it can also affect foreigners visiting the country. With the influx of World Cup tourists and matches spread across 12 citi...

Demonstrators take part in the May Day rally in Lisbon on May 1.PATRICIA DE MELO MOREIRA/AFP/Getty Images Summary Portugal will make a clean exit from its bailout program, showing slightly improved macroeconomic indicators and benefitting from the calm in the financial markets. However, life will remain difficult for many Portuguese, as spending cuts and tax hikes will remain in place. In the short run, the main political and economic debate will revolve around wages in the country, including demands by unions for an increase in the national minimum wage. In the long run, Portugal will have to deal with the consequences of demographic change and high emigration. Analysis May 1 was a day marked by contradictions in Portugal . During a speech in Lisbon, Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho said that his country would not request additional assistance once its bailout program finishes in in two weeks. But Labor Day also saw protests in Portugal's main cities as unions criticized the aus...

Some 50 people, including 10 police officers, were also injured in the incident, the official statement said. It was not immediately clear whether those injured in Friday  street clashes  in Odessa were included in those numbers. According to the ministry, the Friday standoff on Odessa included “anti-Maidan” activists on one side and  “football fans”  from Odessa and Kharkov, as well as "euro-Maidan" activists, on the other. A criminal case on the charges of mass unrest has been opened. Video stills from ustream channel opposition-ru The Trade Unions House was set on fire by pro-Kiev radicals after they surrounded and destroyed the tent camp of anti-government activists that stood in front of the building on Odessa’s Kulikovo Field Square. It was torched in a storming attempt after some of the anti-Maidan activists rallying in the square barricaded themselves inside the building. Thirty of the victims were found on the floors of the building having appa...

WASHINGTON — The director of the Defense Intelligence Agency , Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn of the Army, and his civilian deputy, David R. Shedd, will retire by early fall, the agency said in an email to its employees on Wednesday. The two men are stepping down at a time when the Defense Intelligence Agency is shifting its priorities from providing intelligence to troops in Iraq and Afghanistan to working more closely with the C.I.A. to gather and distribute information on global issues like the proliferation of weapons and rising powers like China. In a statement, the Pentagon spokesman, Rear Adm. John Kirby, said that Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel “appreciates the service of these two dedicated and professional leaders,” and that the retirements had been planned “for some time.” But two senior American officials said tensions had flared between General Flynn and some of his Pentagon colleagues who balked at changes he wanted to make, including cuts to what he viewed as outdated intell...

April marks the two-year anniversary of the Kurdistan Regional Government's stoppage of oil exports to protest what many Kurds considered unfair export terms from Baghdad. The Iraqi government responded by severely constraining budgetary allowances for Arbil. But with Iraqi national elections slated for April 30, there are indications that the Kurds' years-long game of brinksmanship with Baghdad could be coming to an end. In the years surrounding the 2012 U.S. withdrawal from Iraq , nervous Kurds were desperate to find a regional backer to support their local autonomy against Iraq's Sunni and Shiite Arab political forces. Starting in 2003, Turkish firms eager to gain a share of their regional government's energy revenue windfall built roads, schools and power plants with favorable credit terms as part of Turkish foreign policy prerogatives for the region. Facing rising authoritarianism and a consolidation of political power in Baghdad, the Kurds made a gamble in April ...