ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

By Andre Vltchek " Dissident Voice " - - It is not prudent and it is not safe to stick an iron rod into a dragon’s mouth. Whatever they say in the West about dragons… but here in Asia, the dragon is revered as the greatest fabled creature on Earth and in the sky. The dragon is wise and patient, and it hardly ever uses force first. But if treated with disrespect and aggression, it is capable of retaliating in a deadly, determined and powerful way. It is also thoroughly idiotic to go and start terrorizing a sleeping bear. It is obvious what would follow if one descended into a bear’s hole and then started poking a hibernating creature in the head. Nothing good would follow, nothing good at all. But it appears that those who are ruling the Empire are not obsessed with prudence. They seem to be tired of tiny conflicts, which they are continuously stirring all over the globe. Libya is not enough and Congo is not enough. They need something big, really big; even much bigger than

British Royal Marines demonstrate a beach landing during D-Day commemorations in Portsmouth on June 5, 2014.(CARL COURT/AFP/Getty Images) Summary On June 6, 1944, Allied forces from the United States, United Kingdom and Canada launched the largest seaborne invasion in history by landing nearly 160,000 troops on the beaches of Normandy in a single day. This opened the long-awaited second front in the war against Nazi Germany and started the chain of events that ended in the fall of Berlin in May 1945. D-Day was the longest day in that assault and a pivotal moment of the war. In the intervening period, amphibious assaults have been exceedingly rare. Were one to be carried out today, revolutionary shifts in technology and strategy would make a contemporary amphibious operation radically different. Analysis Comprehensive amphibious assaults like that which touched off the invasion of Normandy are perhaps the most difficult military operations possible. Defenders are often concealed in str

(L-R) German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Ukrainian President-elect Petro Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Benouville, France, on the 70th anniversary of the D-Day landings, June 6.(Guido Bergmann/Bundesregierung via Getty Images) Analysis It appears that Ukraine and Russia are heading toward a possible compromise on energy deliveries after months of tense negotiations and threats of a Russian cutoff. Each side has given concessions on the technical sticking points and issues such as price. Currently, the energy talks have been drawn out another week, as Moscow and Kiev each weigh the possibility of larger talks between the two countries on the greater Russian-Ukrainian relationship. The progress comes as the leaders of both Russia and Ukraine -- President Vladimir Putin and President-elect Petro Poroshenko -- traveled to France for the D-Day anniversary ceremonies in Normandy . In France, both leaders separately met with many European heads of state, including British P

The World Cup trophy stands on display in London in March 2014.(BEN STANSALL/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Nearly 70,000 fans will pour into Sao Paulo's Corinthians Arena on June 12 to watch the opening match of the World Cup. Die-hard soccer fans will be watching the action on the field, and fans of political affairs will be watching Brazil, but most everyone will be paying attention in some way because the tournament itself has become a celebration of nations as much as a sporting event. Analysis The World Cup is more than a soccer tournament; it's an occasion for all the nations of the world, at least those that qualify to its final stage, to determine which one produces the best athletes, the tightest teamwork and the most dominant style of play. Smaller nations fight to prove that they belong among the great powers. This is true for the competitors, but it's even truer for the hosts. FIFA, international soccer's governing body that organizes the quadrennial tournament,

New Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Berlin, June 5. (Carsten Koall/Getty Images) Analysis On June 7, Petro Poroshenko, a pro-Western businessman and one of Ukraine's wealthiest individuals, will become the country's president. Six months after former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich's decision not to sign an association agreement with the European Union triggered large-scale demonstrations and ultimately a change in government, Poroshenko faces a variety of political, military and financial challenges. He will attempt to balance his campaign promise of further European integration with his goal of engaging with Moscow and ending the Russian-backed separatist militancy in Ukraine's eastern reaches. Below are recent Stratfor analyses highlighting the events that led to Poroshenko's inauguration. Low Expectations at the Eastern Partnership Summit Nov. 27, 2013: The European Union held a summit of the Eastern Partnership, its flagship program to build close

A man speaks on a walkie talkie near Valemax ship Rio de Janeiro at the harbor of Rotterdam on January 10, 2012.(LEX VAN LIESHOUT/AFP/Getty Images) Summary At a recent conference in Brasilia, Chinese Ambassador to Brazil Li Jinzhang relayed the Chinese Ministry of Transport's interest in a transshipment joint venture with Brazil-based multinational mining and logistics company Vale S.A. The potential agreement would aim to lower transportation costs for Brazilian iron ore and thereby reduce input prices for China's beleaguered steelmakers. The ambassador's comments were meant only to express interest, and the venture is still inchoate. However, the ambassador's comment is something of a peace offering to Vale. Since January 2012, the Chinese government has barred the company's fleet of 30 (soon to be 35) massive iron ore bulk carriers, referred to as Valemax ships, from docking at Chinese ports. The joint venture could allow for Valemax ships to offload iron ore at

Analysis White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said June 5 that under the Joint Plan of Action between the P-5+1 and Iran, the United States will put a six-month hold on measures to reduce Iranian crude oil sales in return for Iran's compliance in rolling back its nuclear program. While Carney's statement is not a fundamental shift in U.S. sanctions policy, it does formally acknowledge the tacit U.S. practice of not fully enforcing sanctions on Iran's oil exports. Under the Joint Plan of Action launched in January, the United States committed to using the authority of the U.S. executive branch to ease up on enforcement of reductions in Iranian crude imports in order to facilitate a nuclear agreement. The plan originally limited Iran's oil exports to around 1 million barrels per day, although the latest figures show Iran exporting slightly more at 1.3 million barrels per day. July 20 is the deadline for the nuclear deal and Iran needs to show its domestic audience that

Wednesday was the 25th anniversary of the bloody crackdown that ended China's Tiananmen Square protests. The occasion offers an opportunity to consider what might have been. By this we do not mean if the protesters had succeeded, because "success" would imply that the students and workers who briefly occupied central Beijing in mid-1989 had a clear and achievable platform. They did not. Rather, we mean that the anniversary offers a chance to ask whether China would be different today had the protests never taken place, or if they had taken place at another time under different circumstances. In key respects, not much would be different. The core tensions and structural imbalances that frame contemporary Chinese geopolitics, from perennial struggles between the central and local governments to starkly uneven regional development to China's unprecedented maritime expansion in the South and East China seas that erupted a few years ago, would have unfolded in some similar