ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

By Paul Craig Roberts  I wish I had only good news to bring to readers, or even one item of good news. Alas, goodness has ceased to be a feature of US policy and simply cannot be found in any words or deeds emanating from Washington or the capitals of its European vassal states. The Western World has succumbed to evil. In an article published by Op-Ed News, Eric Zuesse supports my reports of indications that Washington is preparing for a nuclear first strike against Russia.  US war doctrine has been changed . US nuclear weapons are no longer restricted to a retaliatory force, but have been elevated to the role of preemptive nuclear attack. Washington pulled out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia and is developing and deploying an ABM shield. Washington is demonizing Russia and Russia’s President with shameless lies and propaganda, thus preparing the populations of the US and its client states for war with Russia.  Washington has been convinced by neoconser...

Smoke ascends after a Syrian military helicopter allegedly dropped a barrel bomb over the city of Daraya on Jan. 31.(FADI DIRANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Barrel bombs are not especially effective weapons. They are often poorly constructed; they fail to detonate more often than other devices constructed for a similar purpose; and their lack of precision means they can have a disproportionate effect on civilian populations. However, combatants continue to use barrel bombs in conflicts, including in recent and ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and they are ideally suited to the requirements of resource-poor states. Analysis Barrel bombs are improvised devices that contain explosive filling and shrapnel packed into a container, often in a cylindrical shape such as a barrel. The devices continue to be dropped on towns all over Syria . Indeed, there have been several documented cases of their use in Iraq over the past months, and residents of the city of Mosul, which was re...

Iraqi tribesmen gather in Baghdad to show their readiness to join Iraqi security forces in the fight against militants on June 16.(Photo credit should read AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, buoyed by its recent successes in Iraq, wants to expand its regional reach. Reports that Iraq has withdrawn forces from western towns close to its 110-mile (180-kilometer) border with Jordan have left Amman feeling vulnerable, and the Hashemite kingdom, certainly a target of interest for the jihadist movement, has deployed additional security personnel along the border. Taking on Jordan would be tough for the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, however. The group has the ability to stage terrorist attacks in the country, but significant constraints will prevent it from operating on the levels seen in Iraq and Syria. Analysis The June 15 edition of the Jordan Times reported that Amman had beefed up security along its border with Iraq amid fears t...

Click to Enlarge The Shiite-dominated Iraqi state has weakened to the point where Tehran will have to depend on Shiite militias to protect its interests across the Iraqi border . When Iran's Shiite proxies consolidated control over Iraq after the U.S. invasion, Tehran took comfort in the weakening of the Sunnis, the minority community that had dominated Iraq since 1920. However, Tehran has been concerned about a potential Sunni revival , especially since the Arab Spring in Syria metastasized into a full-scale civil war and regional sectarian conflict. If Syria fell to the Sunnis , Tehran's allied regime in Baghdad would be threatened and Iran could again face a major threat on its western border . Iran's sense of relief about preventing the collapse of the Alawite regime in Damascus shattered earlier this month when Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant militants surged in Iraq . The offensive likely came as a surprise, since the Sunnis in Syria had been contained and the...

An employee at Uzhgorod natural gas metering station near Chaslivci, Ukraine on May 21.(ALEXANDER ZOBIN/AFP/Getty Images) Analysis Following weeks of EU-arbitrated negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Russian energy company Gazprom cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine on June 16. Five days earlier, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak threatened that Moscow would do so if Kiev did not make a $1.95 billion payment on its natural gas debt. On the same day, both Gazprom and Ukraine's Naftogaz filed lawsuits in an arbitration court in Stockholm; Gazprom is trying to collect $4.5 billion in back payments, though Naftogaz claims it had actually overpaid by $6 billion. Russia is trying to pressure Ukraine and its European backers into compromising on debt repayment and pricing. The wrangling over debt and natural gas prices will continue, but the current cutoff is likely to be temporary and less detrimental to downstream buyers than previous cutoffs. Click to Enlarge Recently, ...

A newsstand owner counts Argentine pesos bills in Buenos Aires.(LEO LA VALLE/AFP/Getty Images) Analysis The U.S. Supreme Court rejected a petition from the Argentine government June 16, effectively ending years of legal battles in U.S. courts. The decision not to hear Argentina's case means that a 2012 ruling by lower courts, which forced Argentina to pay holdout creditors, remains intact. The decision by New York District Judge Thomas Griesa said that if Argentina intended to make payments to creditors holding bonds issued in 2005 and 2010, when it restructured its debt, it would have to pay the full value of bonds held by creditors who refused to renegotiate their bonds after the default, known as the holdouts. Click to Enlarge Of the original $95 billion default from Argentina's 2001-2002 economic crisis, a total of 93 percent of creditors participated in the previous debt restructures. Roughly $15 billion, a sum that includes estimated interest, remains in default. At stak...

Summary Finnish EU Minister Alexander Stubb, who is likely to be appointed prime minister in the coming days, said June 14 that his country should join NATO. This comes amid an ongoing debate over the future of Finland , a country that has put military nonalignment at the core of its foreign policy. The debate highlights the extent to which the events in Ukraine are having a political and psychological effect on the line of countries from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea that traditionally have been caught in the conflict between Russia and the West. While there is room for greater cooperation between Finland and NATO, Helsinki is unlikely to formally join NATO any time soon. In the coming years Finland will remain particularly interested in cooperating with its main regional partners in Nordic Europe, especially Sweden . Analysis Finland is the quintessential borderland state, surrounded by powerful neighbors, and the Finns have spent the past 10 centuries worried about events to thei...

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos (R) and presidential candidate Oscar Ivan Zuluaga in a TV debate in Bogota, on June 9, 2014. (GUILLERMO LEGARIA/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Colombians will go to the polls for the second time in a month June 15 to decide whether to re-elect Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos. Santos is running on a platform of reconciliation with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and the National Liberation Army. His opponent, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, who is running with the full sponsorship of former President Alvaro Uribe, appears to offer a return to the more militaristic policies of the Uribe days. Far from offering hope for the future, the scandal-ridden campaign has left Colombians divided and unhappy. Santos and Uribe are two erstwhile allies fighting a public battle through Uribe's proxy, Zuluaga, myopically focused on the fate of a decades-old ideological war. The election can easily be cast as a referendum on the peace talks because the two can...