ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a news conference in Moscow on May 26.(VASILY MAXIMOV/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The standoff between Russia and the West over the former Soviet periphery is having ripple effects throughout the region, and the Caucasus is a prime area for potential change. In its efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, Europe is focused on countries in the region, particularly on Azerbaijan. In response, Russia has stepped up its activity in the Caucasus and is particularly focused on Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that Armenia and Azerbaijan dispute. It is not yet clear that a major change is in the making, but Russia's flurry of diplomatic activity regarding the region suggests that anything is possible. Analysis Located between Europe and Asia, the Caucasus region is characterized by a web of complex relationships . First, there is Georgia, which is oriented toward the West and at odds with Russia. The government in Tbilisi aspires to join the Eu...

A man passes parliamentary campaign posters in Tripoli, Libya, on June 22.(MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Libyans will head to the polls June 25 to elect an interim political body to replace the embattled and largely ineffective General National Congress. The new legislature, the House of Representatives, will oversee the stalled constitutional drafting process and eventually hold elections for a permanent national government as defined by the future constitution. The General National Congress was elected in 2012 in what Western observers deemed a free and fair election with high voter turnout. Subsequent elections have not fared as well; boycotts by ethnic minorities, low turnout and localized violence marred the Feb. 20 constituent assembly polls. The upcoming elections are an attempt to reset the current political impasses in Tripoli, but they also represent one of the few opportunities left for Libya to cobble together a national political order before the country fractu...

Free Syrian Army members examine an unexploded bomb that was dropped on Aleppo by a Syrian MiG fighter jet. Syrian aircraft reportedly hit targets in western Iraq on June 24.(ANDREW CAMPBELL/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Syrian aircraft reportedly carried out airstrikes June 24 against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant targets in the Iraqi town of Qaim, located at the Syrian border in Anbar province. This is not the first time that the Syrian air force has acted against such targets along the border. Recently, these airstrikes have occurred in the militant-controlled areas of western Iraq, though these strikes will not dramatically change the situation on the ground. However, the fact that three bitter adversaries -- the United States, Iran and Syria -- are defending the Iraqi government and responding to the militant threat against it shows that even historical rivals can cooperate, if only temporarily. Analysis Any airstrike in Iraqi territory is noteworthy. The U.S.-led invasion...

Click to Enlarge A political crisis in Lesotho has left the parliament paralyzed as the military mobilizes in the capital of Maseru. Although the fallout from a change of government, even a potential coup, would be largely contained in Lesotho itself, South Africa has a vested interest in maintaining stability in the landlocked country. The need to prevent any disruption to South Africa's water supply could prompt President Jacob Zuma to intervene and restore order in Lesotho, as his country did in 1998. South Africa's main interest is avoiding a security breakdown that would jeopardize its water supplies. Nearly a quarter of the country's naturally available water originates in Lesotho, which receives 60 percent more rain than South Africa. The water is funneled into South Africa through a system of reservoirs, dams and transport tunnels, providing critical supplies for the population as well as the mining industry. Locations that would suffer the most from a d...

EUROPE June 23: Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu and Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades will meet to discuss the reunification of Cyprus. June 23: The EU Foreign Affairs Council will convene in Brussels. June 24: The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. June 24: Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Vienna at the invitation of Austrian President Heinz Fischer. June 24-25: NATO foreign ministers will gather at NATO headquarters in Brussels for a meeting chaired by NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. June 25: Coreper I will meet in Brussels. June 25: An Iranian parliamentary delegation composed of lawmakers representing religious minorities will visit Germany to participate in an annual religious conference. June 25: Justice and home affairs ministers from the United States and European Union will gather in Athens. June 25-26: The plenary session of the EU Committee of the Regions will take place in Brussels. June 27: The European Council will meet i...

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at a 2007 news conference in Vienna.(ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Austria and Russia have a long and deep relationship; history and geography have often aligned their foreign policy interests. Russia does not expect anything specific from Russian President Vladimir Putin's June 24 visit to Austria, but the meeting itself is a way for Moscow to exploit the political divisions in Europe. Although Austria is not a particularly important EU decision-maker, it is a part of the German supply chain with political and economic influence in Central Europe and the Western Balkans. Austria is also interested in remaining a major hub for Russian energy. For its part, Russia wants to benefit from its good relationship with Austria as it makes sure the European Union remains fragmented. Analysis Austria historically has seen Central Europe and the Western Balkans as part of its natural sphere of influence. In broad terms, Austria's int...

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is surrounded by reporters at his official residence in Tokyo on May 29.(JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty Images) Summary North Korea is quietly moving toward a temporary political accommodation with Japan that could ease Japanese sanctions and chip away at North Korea's economic isolation. Although the central issue under discussion is the status of nearly 90 Japanese citizens North Korea is thought to have abducted, deeper strategic interests are opening an opportunity for increased bilateral cooperation. A detente would offer North Korea a chance to soften its over-dependence on China, balancing relations with Tokyo against Beijing's disproportionate influence in Pyongyang. Meanwhile, easing tensions with North Korea would help Japan shore up its northern and western flanks so that it can shift the bulk of its security attention to its southern maritime interests. Analysis Japanese and North Korean officials will meet again in the coming days to assess...

Iraqi troops arrive to support Sunni anti-al Qaeda militia Sahwa (Awakening) in Ramadi, Anbar province, on June 21.(-/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Over the weekend of June 22, Sunni opposition fighters, including Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant militants, seized several important towns and border crossings in western Iraq's Anbar province. The insurgents took advantage of the army's reduced presence there; troops are being redeployed northward and eastward ahead of a planned offensive along the Tigris River. The Sunni gains made in Anbar will pressure the government and distract Baghdad from the impending offensive. Analysis The militant attacks in Anbar province were fast and concentrated, and they were directed against weak government forces hundreds of kilometers away from Baghdad. The result was the seizure of the towns of Rutba, Qaim, Rawah and Anah and three border crossings: the Qaim and Al Waleed crossings into Syria and the Trebil crossing into Jordan. The militants...