ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

The first thing that stood out to me in Addis Ababa was its Christian character: Here, Christianity is not a colonial vestige but an endemic phenomenon. The Ethiopian Kingdom of Axum adopted Monophysite Christianity in the fourth century, long before the conversion of most of Europe. Amid a maelstrom of historical change, the empire, known as Abyssinia, clung to its Orthodox view of Christianity, taking refuge in the mountains and turning away from the sea, its erstwhile source of affluence and influence. Thinking of these early Christians cut off in these remote mountains, I cannot help but remember the early Portuguese explorers who thought Ethiopia to be the kingdom of the mythical Prester John, who, as legend has it, ruled in splendid isolation, detached from the Muslim coast. The nature of the Christian imagery in Ethiopia is surprising to me. In a nation possessed of deep national pride, most of the portraits of Jesus and the Virgin Mary are fair-skinned, in the style of Greek or...

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso (R) welcomes Moldovan Prime Minister Iurie Leanca on May 15 at the EU headquarters in Brussels.(JOHN THYS/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Moldova's official adoption of the EU association and free trade agreement on June 27 will be a notable milestone in the country's EU integration efforts, but it will be met with opposition on several fronts. After signing the deal, Moldova is unlikely to experience a Ukraine-type situation in which armed separatists pose a substantial threat to the government or in which Russia moves to annex Moldovan territory. However, several areas could destabilize the tiny but strategic country that is part of the greater competition between Russia and the West. Analysis Several players inside and outside of Moldova -- including Transdniestria, Gagauzia, the opposition Communist Party and Russia -- have opposed Moldova's signing of the EU association and free trade agreement. Below is a breakdown of the ...

The name and logo of the Hungarian National Bank (Magyar Nemzeti Bank) adorn the main entrance of the bank headquarters in downtown Budapest.(ATTILA KISBENEDEK/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Before the end of the year, Budapest will approve new measures to try to help households repay their foreign-denominated loans. In the coming weeks, the debate will revolve around exactly what to do and how to distribute the costs. Analysis The Hungarian government's efforts to relieve households struggling to repay their foreign-denominated loans saw a new chapter June 24, when Economy Minister Mihaly Varga said the government would present a "clear and straightforward solution" before the year ends. This comes after the Hungarian Constitutional Court determined that banks should have offered detailed information about the risk when offering those loans and cannot unilaterally change the terms of the loans. Before the European crisis , foreign-denominated loans, mostly in Swiss francs bu...

A man views what is left of his house in Slovyansk, Ukraine, on June 24.(JOHN MACDOUGALL/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Russia's upper house withdrew a key resolution June 25 that authorized the Russian military to intervene in Ukraine. By revoking this decree, Moscow aims to demonstrate its commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the ongoing crisis. Despite advocating talks between Kiev and the eastern separatists, the Kremlin is focused on protecting its own interests. As long as the Ukrainian government fails to satisfy the Kremlin's main demands, which ultimately boil down to the decentralization and neutralization of Ukraine, Russia will continue supporting the armed separatist movement in eastern Ukraine to apply leverage during its negotiations with Kiev. Analysis Russian President Vladimir Putin asked Russia's Federation Council on June 25 to reverse its March decision authorizing military intervention. At the same time, Putin also announced that while he supports...

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a news conference in Moscow on May 26.(VASILY MAXIMOV/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The standoff between Russia and the West over the former Soviet periphery is having ripple effects throughout the region, and the Caucasus is a prime area for potential change. In its efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, Europe is focused on countries in the region, particularly on Azerbaijan. In response, Russia has stepped up its activity in the Caucasus and is particularly focused on Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that Armenia and Azerbaijan dispute. It is not yet clear that a major change is in the making, but Russia's flurry of diplomatic activity regarding the region suggests that anything is possible. Analysis Located between Europe and Asia, the Caucasus region is characterized by a web of complex relationships . First, there is Georgia, which is oriented toward the West and at odds with Russia. The government in Tbilisi aspires to join the Eu...

A man passes parliamentary campaign posters in Tripoli, Libya, on June 22.(MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Libyans will head to the polls June 25 to elect an interim political body to replace the embattled and largely ineffective General National Congress. The new legislature, the House of Representatives, will oversee the stalled constitutional drafting process and eventually hold elections for a permanent national government as defined by the future constitution. The General National Congress was elected in 2012 in what Western observers deemed a free and fair election with high voter turnout. Subsequent elections have not fared as well; boycotts by ethnic minorities, low turnout and localized violence marred the Feb. 20 constituent assembly polls. The upcoming elections are an attempt to reset the current political impasses in Tripoli, but they also represent one of the few opportunities left for Libya to cobble together a national political order before the country fractu...

Free Syrian Army members examine an unexploded bomb that was dropped on Aleppo by a Syrian MiG fighter jet. Syrian aircraft reportedly hit targets in western Iraq on June 24.(ANDREW CAMPBELL/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Syrian aircraft reportedly carried out airstrikes June 24 against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant targets in the Iraqi town of Qaim, located at the Syrian border in Anbar province. This is not the first time that the Syrian air force has acted against such targets along the border. Recently, these airstrikes have occurred in the militant-controlled areas of western Iraq, though these strikes will not dramatically change the situation on the ground. However, the fact that three bitter adversaries -- the United States, Iran and Syria -- are defending the Iraqi government and responding to the militant threat against it shows that even historical rivals can cooperate, if only temporarily. Analysis Any airstrike in Iraqi territory is noteworthy. The U.S.-led invasion...

Click to Enlarge A political crisis in Lesotho has left the parliament paralyzed as the military mobilizes in the capital of Maseru. Although the fallout from a change of government, even a potential coup, would be largely contained in Lesotho itself, South Africa has a vested interest in maintaining stability in the landlocked country. The need to prevent any disruption to South Africa's water supply could prompt President Jacob Zuma to intervene and restore order in Lesotho, as his country did in 1998. South Africa's main interest is avoiding a security breakdown that would jeopardize its water supplies. Nearly a quarter of the country's naturally available water originates in Lesotho, which receives 60 percent more rain than South Africa. The water is funneled into South Africa through a system of reservoirs, dams and transport tunnels, providing critical supplies for the population as well as the mining industry. Locations that would suffer the most from a d...