ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Summary Editor's Note: This is the second installment in a three-part series on militant activity in Nigeria. The geopolitics of Nigeria engenders the use of regional militias , which wage insurgencies in part to help their patrons earn political and economic power and prestige. Nigeria's most infamous militia, at least for now, is Boko Haram, a militant Islamist group that recently made headlines when it kidnapped some 200 young girls. Despite all the calls for retribution from the West, Boko Haram remains as strong as ever, its strength owed to its robust support network, structure, capabilities and regional reach. Analysis Boko Haram has a well-defined organizational structure based on a fluid number of cells and hierarchical layers. It draws support from sympathetic Islamists in northern Nigeria; northern state institutions, including the government and security forces; and the Kanuri ethnic group, which accounts for roughly 4 percent of the country's population. Cross-...

An American flag flies in front of the Brandenburg Gate, near the U.S. Embassy in Berlin, on July 7.(Adam Berry/Getty Images) Summary On July 13, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier met to calm tensions between the United States and Germany brought about by alleged U.S. espionage in Germany. The allegations spawned weeks of friction at a time when Germany had begun reshaping its foreign policy, seeking a balance between its military and political ties with the United States and its trade and energy ties with Russia . Two and a half decades after reunification, Germany is starting to develop a more independent foreign policy, an idea that the country's leaders are finding has electoral merit. While a formal break between Germany and the United States cannot be expected, Berlin will choose how to challenge the White House selectively in the coming years. Analysis On the surface, the recent tensions between Germany and the United St...

A missile is launched by an Iron Dome battery in the southern Israeli city of Ashdod on July 15.DAVID BUIMOVITCH/AFP/Getty Images Summary A short-term cease-fire proposed by Egypt, accepted by Israel on July 15 and so far rejected by Gaza’s main Palestinian factions is already on shaky ground. The Israeli Cabinet voted in favor of the cease-fire but is now threatening to reconsider after a fresh barrage of rockets was launched from Gaza. Analysis Egypt's proposed cease-fire calls upon Israeli and Palestinian delegations to arrive in Cairo within 48 hours to discuss terms for a more lasting truce. The proposal issues a vague call for border crossings into Gaza to be reopened once the security situation is stabilized. Hamas is looking for firmer guarantees on the release of prisoners and the lifting of the Gaza blockade, while Israel is trying to move the cease-fire talks toward a negotiated plan that forces Hamas to give up its rocket arsenal. In the hours since the proposal, Hamas’...

The Hamas administration building after it was hit by an overnight Israeli airstrike on July 16 in Gaza City.THOMAS COEX/AFP/Getty Images Analysis After rejecting a seemingly rushed Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire early July 15, Hamas' political and military leadership has since been deliberating the terms it wants to propose for a fresh cease-fire initiative. Egypt is not, however, the only mediator in this round of Gaza hostilities. Qatar and Turkey are trying to usurp Egypt's role and increase their own leverage in the region by presenting themselves as the superior conduit between Gaza militant factions and Israel and the United States. Stratfor has received indications that the Qatari leadership is already in consultations with Hamas over a fresh cease-fire proposal. Following the Egyptian military coup that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood -- the parent organization of Hamas -- from power, the Hamas leadership is deeply distrustful of Cairo and has already expressed its ...

Analysis EUROPE July 14: The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will be held in Brussels. July 14-15: EU ministers for development will hold an informal meeting in Florence, Italy. July 14-17: The European Parliament will hold a plenary session in Strasbourg, France. July 14-17: European Parliament committee meetings will be held in Strasbourg, France. July 14-18: The sixth round of talks for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership will be held in Brussels. July 15: The European Parliament will vote on the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as the European Commission president. July 16: The European Council will gather in Brussels. July 16: The European Commission will host a donor conference for Serbia and Bosnia focusing on helping them recover from the devastating May floods that damaged infrastructure and left thousands homeless. July 16: The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. July 16: The European Central Bank Governing Council will gathe...

Summary Editor's Note: This is the first installment in a three-part series explaining how one of Africa's most wealthy nations became a mainstay for armed militias. Part 1 discusses the political circumstances that engendered militancy. Part 2 examines Boko Haram, perhaps the most infamous group operating in the country today. Part 3 discusses how the 2015 presidential election will determine the future of Boko Haram's insurgency. Militancy is part of Nigeria's national fabric . Whereas it was once a means of expressing political grievance, it has become a tactic militant groups and their civilian benefactors use to acquire and defend political power. Militancy flourishes in Nigeria because political advancement requires it. In years past, groups achieved power through military coups. In fact, competing factions of the Nigerian military have ruled the country for most of its post-independence history. But Nigerian politicians did not discriminate between powerful civil...

Leaders talk at the BRICS meeting during the G20 summit in 2013 in St. Petersburg, Russia. (Alexei Danichev/Host Photo Agency via Getty Images) Summary The sixth BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit begins July 14 in Brazil. The three-day summit is expected to see plans finalized for a new financial institution to be known as the BRICS Development Bank and a currency pool to be known as the Contingency Reserve Arrangement. The moves are a part of an ongoing process by which non-Western developing countries are seeking to build mechanisms for loans with fewer conditions than those issued by multilateral Western institutions. It also represents an effort to create insulation from potential fallout from future crises in the Western-led financial system, which BRICS' efforts notwithstanding will continue to dominate the world's financial markets. Within the new BRICS mechanism itself, China will dominate given that its economy and financial power dwarfs those ...

Click to Enlarge There are indications that Israel Defense Forces may enter the Gaza Strip yet again. The Israeli Cabinet has called for approximately 100,000 Gaza residents to vacate northern and southern border villages, a statement typically made before ground incursions or intensive airstrikes in the hopes of limiting civilian casualties. Hamas has urged Palestinians not to follow the order. If the Israeli military does invade Gaza, it may simply be an operation in border villages, not the entire territory. That kind of offensive would require combat engineer units equipped with heavy bulldozers, and dedicated artillery and close air support assets such as helicopters. For now, ground operations will focus on intelligence gathering or interdicting movement and rocket launching systems. Indeed, by targeting the border areas, the military means to destroy the launch sites closest to Israel, mitigating the risk the rockets pose to Israel's major population centers . In add...