ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

The heads of state and government of the European Union met July 16 to discuss two of the most important issues on the bloc's agenda: the EU-Russian standoff and the designation of officials for some of the most important portfolios in the EU Commission. In recent months, these issues have been troublesome for the European Union as countries struggled to find consensus. Wednesday's meeting was no different. Since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis in late 2013, and particularly since Russia's annexation of Crimea early this year, the debate on how to react to Moscow's moves has generated substantial tension within the European Union, because it highlights the deep differences in strategic interests within the bloc . Central and Eastern European countries such as Poland and Lithuania, which historically have been invaded or annexed by Russia , demand a tougher stance against Moscow, while countries in Western Europe such as Germany and Italy are interested in preservin

Summary Editor's Note: This is the third installment in a three-part series on militant activity in Nigeria. In some ways, the future of northern Nigeria's counterinsurgency rests in the hands of Nigerian voters. If President Goodluck Jonathan is elected for another term, the Boko Haram campaign will intensify. If Jonathan loses, the presidency would go to a northerner, who would be better suited to developing the political, social and economic relationships needed to wage an effective counterinsurgency. Analysis Of course, the presidential election is a national contest, not a regional one, and so the consequences stretch far beyond northern Nigeria. Though Boko Haram has captured the attention of international media, it is not the only militant group with which Abuja contends, nor is it the only group that has a vested interest in the election's outcome. If Jonathan is not re-elected and Niger Delta militants lose their political patronage, they will probably attack oil

A Ukrainian soldier carries defused RPG round near the eastern city of Slovyansk in the Donetsk region on July 14.(GENYA SAVILOV/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The conflict in Ukraine has evolved significantly in recent weeks. Ukrainian security forces have made progress against the pro-Russia rebellion that has plagued the country since March. Central to Kiev's efforts was the takeover of Slovyansk , which had been a rebel stronghold, by the Ukrainian military over the weekend of July 4-6. The rebels fled their bases and checkpoints in Slovyansk and the surrounding areas, but rather than cross the border into Russia, many instead joined forces with pro-Russian separatists in and around Donetsk to continue fighting. Analysis Because the rebels have lingered in the country, Kiev must now focus its military operations in Donetsk and Luhansk, the two major strongholds of pro-Russian separatists. With the fall of Slovyansk, Ukrainian forces have enhanced their ability to move fuel and equi

U.S. President Barack Obama formally announces new sanctions against Russia on July 16. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) Analysis On July 16, the U.S. Treasury released the next round of sanctions against Russian, Crimean and Ukrainian groups and individuals. Previous sanctions from the United States against Russian people and entities were widely criticized for not being severe enough. The new sanctions appear to add potency to previous rulings, with many Russian military firms falling under the "Specially Designated Nationals," or SDN, sanction list. This means that corporations in the United States cannot do business with these companies, which range from military industrial suppliers to credit providers. The new sanctions also prevent providing financing for deals with companies on the revised list. It is worth noting, however, that Russia does not supply much military equipment to the United States. The only deals to be affected thus far have involved the import of Ka

Summary Editor's Note: This is the second installment in a three-part series on militant activity in Nigeria. The geopolitics of Nigeria engenders the use of regional militias , which wage insurgencies in part to help their patrons earn political and economic power and prestige. Nigeria's most infamous militia, at least for now, is Boko Haram, a militant Islamist group that recently made headlines when it kidnapped some 200 young girls. Despite all the calls for retribution from the West, Boko Haram remains as strong as ever, its strength owed to its robust support network, structure, capabilities and regional reach. Analysis Boko Haram has a well-defined organizational structure based on a fluid number of cells and hierarchical layers. It draws support from sympathetic Islamists in northern Nigeria; northern state institutions, including the government and security forces; and the Kanuri ethnic group, which accounts for roughly 4 percent of the country's population. Cross-

An American flag flies in front of the Brandenburg Gate, near the U.S. Embassy in Berlin, on July 7.(Adam Berry/Getty Images) Summary On July 13, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier met to calm tensions between the United States and Germany brought about by alleged U.S. espionage in Germany. The allegations spawned weeks of friction at a time when Germany had begun reshaping its foreign policy, seeking a balance between its military and political ties with the United States and its trade and energy ties with Russia . Two and a half decades after reunification, Germany is starting to develop a more independent foreign policy, an idea that the country's leaders are finding has electoral merit. While a formal break between Germany and the United States cannot be expected, Berlin will choose how to challenge the White House selectively in the coming years. Analysis On the surface, the recent tensions between Germany and the United St

A missile is launched by an Iron Dome battery in the southern Israeli city of Ashdod on July 15.DAVID BUIMOVITCH/AFP/Getty Images Summary A short-term cease-fire proposed by Egypt, accepted by Israel on July 15 and so far rejected by Gaza’s main Palestinian factions is already on shaky ground. The Israeli Cabinet voted in favor of the cease-fire but is now threatening to reconsider after a fresh barrage of rockets was launched from Gaza. Analysis Egypt's proposed cease-fire calls upon Israeli and Palestinian delegations to arrive in Cairo within 48 hours to discuss terms for a more lasting truce. The proposal issues a vague call for border crossings into Gaza to be reopened once the security situation is stabilized. Hamas is looking for firmer guarantees on the release of prisoners and the lifting of the Gaza blockade, while Israel is trying to move the cease-fire talks toward a negotiated plan that forces Hamas to give up its rocket arsenal. In the hours since the proposal, Hamas’

The Hamas administration building after it was hit by an overnight Israeli airstrike on July 16 in Gaza City.THOMAS COEX/AFP/Getty Images Analysis After rejecting a seemingly rushed Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire early July 15, Hamas' political and military leadership has since been deliberating the terms it wants to propose for a fresh cease-fire initiative. Egypt is not, however, the only mediator in this round of Gaza hostilities. Qatar and Turkey are trying to usurp Egypt's role and increase their own leverage in the region by presenting themselves as the superior conduit between Gaza militant factions and Israel and the United States. Stratfor has received indications that the Qatari leadership is already in consultations with Hamas over a fresh cease-fire proposal. Following the Egyptian military coup that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood -- the parent organization of Hamas -- from power, the Hamas leadership is deeply distrustful of Cairo and has already expressed its