ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

  U.S. Naval Update Map: July 4, 2024

## Geopolitical Tensions Remain High in 2024 The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to pose a significant geopolitical risk, straining relations between NATO and Russia.[1][2][5] The trajectory of this conflict will affect Russia's ability to trade with NATO members and the availability of cheap Russian gas globally.[5] Increased superpower tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, are having a considerable impact on the global economy. Any disruption in their trade relationship will affect the world.[5] ## Cybersecurity Threats Escalate Cyberattacks are becoming more frequent and severe, increasingly being used as a tool of statecraft. The human and financial impact of these attacks continues to rise as critical infrastructure becomes more digitized.[5] ## Climate Change Impacts Geopolitics Climate change, in the form of extreme weather and rising sea levels, is disrupting trade routes and damaging infrastructure, posing significant national security and global stability r...

  Middle East Tensions: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated with direct aerial attacks from both sides, increasing the risk of broader regional instability. The prolonged and lethal nature of Israeli operations in Gaza heightens the potential for further escalation and contagion in the region​ ( BlackRock ) ​. Russia-NATO Dynamics: The war in Ukraine remains a critical geopolitical flashpoint, with the conflict entering its third year. Recent military aid from the U.S. aims to bolster Ukraine's defenses, but the situation remains volatile with significant support for Russia from Iran, North Korea, and financial backing from China​ ( BlackRock ) ​​ ( EY US ) ​. US-China Relations: The U.S.-China strategic competition is intensifying, particularly in the areas of advanced technology and defense. Despite efforts to improve diplomatic relations through high-level dialogues, the fundamental competitive dynamics remain unchanged. The risk of conflict over Tai...

 Hypersonic Missiles Hypersonic missiles are a new category of weapons which have sparked intense debate among security experts. Capable of travelling over five times the speed of sound (Mach 5), and of performing evasive maneuvers mid-flight, they are considered practically impossible to intercept using conventional missile defense systems. Adding that in some cases they can carry nuclear warheads, it is immediately clear why they have caused so much concern in regard to their impact on the global strategic equilibrium. The world’s leading military powers (the United States, China, and Russia) and other states are working on their development. Even though their specific technical characteristics and actual performance remain shrouded in secrecy, hypersonic weapons are poised to become an integral part of future warfare, with noteworthy implications in military and international terms.  HYPERSONIC MISSILES:  THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ART By definition, hypersonic missiles ...

 Here are some key geopolitical developments from around the world as of today, July 4, 2024: 1. **China-Taiwan Tensions**: China has initiated significant military drills around Taiwan, labeled "Joint Sword-2024A." These exercises involve naval vessels and military aircraft and are aimed at demonstrating China's ability to seize control of strategic areas. This action comes shortly after the inauguration of Taiwan's new President, Lai Ching-te, whom China accuses of separatism. Both the United Nations and the United States have urged China to exercise restraint to prevent escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait【6†source】【7†source】. 2. **Middle East Conflicts**: The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East remains tense with ongoing clashes between Israeli and Hezbollah forces. This has led to increased military activities and significant concerns about stability in the region. Additionally, the recent direct strikes between Israel and Iran mark a notable escalation...

  1. Tensions Flare: Israel-Gaza: Ongoing fighting in Gaza has displaced tens of thousands of people. The UN is calling for a ceasefire [Global Issues]. China-Taiwan: China continues its military presence near Taiwan, raising concerns about a potential conflict [Economic Times]. 2. Diplomatic Developments: Russia-Cuba: Russia's renewed military presence in Cuba suggests a potential strengthening of ties between the two nations [Geopolitical Monitor]. UN Security Council Reform: India calls for urgent reform of the UN Security Council to reflect the changing geopolitical landscape [Economic Times]. Mexico Elections: Mexico heads to the polls amidst rising cartel violence [Geopolitical Monitor]. 3. Other: South China Sea: Talks between China and the Philippines offer a temporary reprieve but tensions remain high [Stratfor].

 Here are the key geopolitical developments for 2024: ## Oceans take geostrategic prominence The geopolitics of the oceans will feature more prominently in 2024. 90% of global goods trade is shipped via maritime routes, but many of the world's busiest maritime transit corridors are at risk of geopolitical disruption. Deep-sea mining is forecast to account for at least one-third of the supply of critical minerals necessary for the energy transition[1]. ## Countries race to innovate on and regulate AI Governments will race to regulate AI to reduce potential sociopolitical risks, while simultaneously trying to foster domestic AI innovation to compete geopolitically. AI will be a central dynamic in US-China relations in 2024[1]. ## Elections everywhere all at once Voters will go to the polls in markets accounting for about 54% of the global population and nearly 60% of global GDP in 2024, generating regulatory and policy uncertainty. The US and EU elections may be the most consequentia...

  Global News Roundup: July 3, 2024 Record-Breaking Heat Across the Globe July 3, 2024, marked the hottest day ever recorded globally, with the average temperature reaching 62.9 degrees Fahrenheit (17.2 degrees Celsius). This unprecedented heat wave has affected regions worldwide, including Quebec, Peru, and Beijing, causing health concerns, particularly for vulnerable populations like the elderly and young children. Scientists attribute these extreme temperatures to ongoing climate change, highlighting the urgent need for global climate action​ ( Ground News ) ​​ ( WORLD ) ​. France Continues to Face Unrest France remains in turmoil as protests sparked by the police killing of a French teenager continue. Riots have led to significant property damage and numerous arrests, with over 3,000 people detained so far. Despite a slight easing in violence, the French government has maintained a heightened police presence to restore order. This situation underscores the ongoing social an...