Amid Talks, Separatists Still Control Much of Eastern Ukraine

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Although Russian President Vladimir Putin's public support for diplomatic talks in eastern Ukraine and the decision of some separatist leaders to call for a cease-fire may de-escalate the crisis somewhat, a significant reduction in armed separatist activity throughout the contested east is unlikely. Conflicts between Western interests and Russia's goal of creating a neutral, decentralized Ukraine have prolonged negotiations.

Members of the Donetsk People's Republic, the militant-controlled region of Ukraine, participated in informal consultations June 23, signaling an evolution in the ongoing conflict. Previously, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko had resisted Russian pressure to negotiate with separatist leaders. Similarly, separatists had opposed the idea of holding direct talks with the government in Kiev. Separatist leaders, pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians, Russia's ambassador to Ukraine, former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and an Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe representative, Heidi Tagliavini, met in Donetsk on June 23. Though Ukrainian government officials -- who were represented informally by Kuchma -- were notably absent, as were some key separatist leaders, the unofficial discussions demonstrated the willingness of all parties to engage in limited negotiations.

Despite the informal consultations, the government in Kiev, the Kremlin and the various separatist leaders remain divided on most key issues. Even as separatist leader Alexander Borodai declared a cease-fire in Donetsk, he emphasized that the militants would take part in formal negotiations only if Ukrainian troops left eastern Ukraine and the self-declared republics were granted a special status under Ukraine's Constitution. While Poroshenko has advocated a cease-fire and proposed decentralization as a part of his peace plan, the separatists' policy demands remain unacceptable to the government in Kiev, which has worked to reassert military control over the eastern regions and strongly opposes the federalization of Ukraine.

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