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Iraq Update: Clashes Continue Across Sunni Areas



Iraqi troops in Ramadi on June 21.(-/AFP/Getty Images)

Analysis


The situation in Iraq remains fluid and dynamic, with clashes taking place across the Sunni areas of Iraq. According to unnamed Iraqi defense officials, seven divisions (approximately half of the Iraqi army prior to the fall of Mosul) have crumbled.

With a significant portion of its regular forces defeated and with large numbers of recent volunteers lacking training and experience, the Iraqi army will have to increasingly rely on outside powers, such as Iran and the United States, as well as Shiite militias such as the al-Sadrite movement, for aid. As Stratfor has noted, this dependence, especially on Iranian and Shiite militias, may worsen sectarian tensions and make it increasingly difficult for the central government to court ambivalent Sunni tribes in efforts to turn them against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.



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Baghdad remains heavily defended by the Iraqi security forces, but with the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant moving closer to the capital, the militants are increasingly able to use significant terrorist tradecraft to stage bombings, assassinations and assaults in the city. These range from large vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices to suicide squad tactics similar to those the Taliban has used in Kabul over the last few years.

Sunni militant forces continue to make advances in the Sunni-populated areas of Iraq, having reportedly reached the strategic Mahmudiyah district southwest of Baghdad in large numbers. The area has important roads and supply routes linking Baghdad with the Shiite majority in the south. Kurdish officials said that militants had seized the towns of Iskandariyah and Mahmudiyah, but the latest reports indicate that the weakened 17th division of the Iraqi army is still fighting in the area, though it lacks air support and armored vehicles.

The Iraqi army has made some progress in Diyala province north of Baghdad and reportedly continues to fight for the Baiji refinery, moving in reinforcements by helicopter. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant and its allies are continuing to stage attacks in the Tigris River valley, where they have staged a three-pronged attack on Balad air base and have reportedly overrun a portion of the facility. Attacking the air base prevents the Iraqi army from using it as a forward operating base, especially for its attack helicopters, most of which are stationed at Taji air base near Baghdad.

While the Iraqi army seems entrenched around Samarra, its forces' lack of readiness and the inexperience of the newly incorporated volunteers will make it difficult for the central government to stage a rapid advance on Sunni-dominated areas north of the city. The ongoing fight for the Baiji refinery is reportedly spearheaded by well-trained Iraqi special operations forces, which have limited numbers. With Sunni rebel forces encroaching on Baghdad from the west and southwest, the Iraqi government will also have to divert some of its forces to reinforce these fronts, which will detract from its attempts to push north from Samarra.


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