Hamas militants fire artillery rockets form south Gaza into Israel, July 19. (JACK GUEZ/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary
Rockets are at the center of the crisis in Gaza. Despite the Israeli operation to clear Hamas' tunnel networks, which the group uses to move and store its rocket arsenal, Hamas continues to launch artillery rockets. Not only that, but the militants are reducing the weight of their rocket warheads, increasing the range of the projectiles and threatening towns and cities across Israel.
Analysis
Based on information from Israeli defense sources and Stratfor contacts, as well as a careful examination of impact sites, it appears that Hamas is willing to reduce the explosive lethality of its rockets in order to achieve greater range. By removing weight from the warheads of these medium-range rockets, Palestinian militants can increase the rockets' velocity, in turn extending their flight time. This adjustment enables Hamas to more consistently set off rocket sirens across Israel. Stratfor sources have confirmed that Iranian advisers told Hamas engineers to reduce the weight of the Khaibar rocket's warhead by half, which is supposed to increase its range by approximately 17 percent. A similar effect would be achieved when applied to the shorter-range Fajr-5 rocket system.
This would explain the lack of explosive damage witnessed at several impact sites in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Some artillery rockets may still be launched with their complete warheads, and Palestinian militant organizations have not completely forfeited their desire to inflict material damage and casualties on Israel. Indeed, shorter-range, fully loaded artillery rockets fired in larger volumes at southern Israel have inflicted a greater amount of damage, even inflicting casualties, throughout all of Gaza's rocket offensives. Given the number of extended-range rockets that Israel's Iron Dome air defense system has intercepted or that land off-target in unpopulated areas, it is difficult to accurately assess how many launches contain reduced-weight warheads.
An Evolving Threat
Palestinian militant organizations have historically used rockets to great effect. Rather than limiting themselves to attacks on nearby targets in southern Israel, Hamas' medium-range rocket capability has enabled it to disrupt the lives of Israelis across almost the entire country. Aside from the damage caused by unguided projectiles, Hamas values the psychological impact rockets have on the Israeli population. By prioritizing range over lethality, Hamas and other Palestinian organizations gained the ability to strike deep into Israel, threatening Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and even Haifa, around 150 kilometers (90 miles) to the north.
Landing rockets in areas that were previously out of range affects the day-to-day social, economic and political lives of Israelis. Besides the disruption, Israel's parliament must at least appear to respond to Palestinian aggression. Any perceived weakness could have damaging effects internally and could affect Israel's position in the eyes of its regional and international enemies.
Although Palestinian militants are continuing their indirect fire campaign, they are running into several obstacles. First, they are heavily dependent on foreign backers to sustain their rocket stockpiles. Second, there are serious logistical issues complicating the movement of munitions and parts into Gaza itself. Third, Israeli interference is a threat, from active countermeasures such as Iron Dome to actual offensive operations like Protective Edge. Finally, although comparatively cheap, unsophisticated rockets are highly inaccurate and generally of limited range and utility.
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Since the initial launches of Iranian-designed Fajr-5 artillery rockets around the time of Operation Pillar of Defense in 2012, medium-range rockets have failed to cause notable destruction in central Israel. Even now, with Hamas launching Syrian-made Khaibar rockets that have a longer range and expanded payload (up to 150 kilograms, or 330 pounds) these launches are not translating into significant damage or casualties. The inability to accurately land rounds on target already limits the harm caused by larger rockets fired from Gaza, as does the proclaimed ability of Israel's Iron Dome system to intercept many of these weapons in flight.
That Hamas is taking steps to overcome these constraints, even at the cost of reducing the effectiveness of its preferred weapon, indicates a continuing desire to smuggle more advanced weapon systems into Gaza. The next step for militant groups seeking to inflict more damage is to acquire rocket systems capable of threatening central Israel while maintaining their firepower, ideally with increased accuracy or a higher degree of survivability against the Iron Dome system. Such systems come with increased cost, complexity and political risk for the supplier. Hamas' ability to roll out an enhanced capability depends heavily on the ability to bring weapon parts and completed systems into Gaza after the ongoing crisis. It is also heavily dependent on the willingness of external backers such as Iran to deliver more advanced systems to Gaza. What is certain is that Israel will not sit back and allow Hamas access to such weaponry.
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