A Ukrainian convoy passes through Konstantinovka in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk province on July 21.(GENYA SAVILOV/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary
Since a cease-fire expired in early July, Ukrainian security forces have made real gains on the battlefield, siphoning off territory from pro-Russian separatists and forcing them to go on the defensive. With a concert of air power, artillery and thrusts that combine infantry and armor, Ukrainian forces have advanced along three axes. As military operations move farther east toward Russia, however, the operation will face more stubborn and capable resistance -- as long as Russia continues to support the militants.
Analysis
Before the cease-fire went into effect, the Ukrainian military had been surrounding Slovyansk, slowly strangling rebel positions in the city. Farther afoot, they were putting slight pressure on territory to the west of Donetsk city and north of Luhansk city, but the Ukrainian military had lost control over a large portion of its border posts and thus of the border itself, retaining a tenuous hold on just a few isolated outposts.
Kiev's Objectives
Following the end of the cease-fire, Ukraine's Interior Ministry laid out three clear objectives for its resumed military operations. The first objective was to continue to surround Slovyansk and slowly constrict the city until rebel resistance failed. The second goal was to drive on Donetsk and Luhansk and surround those cities in a similar fashion. Finally, Ukraine aimed to re-establish control of the porous border in order to respond to increased Russian assistance moving across it. Russian materiel assistance to militants has included main battle tanks, self-propelled artillery, armored personnel carriers, Grad rocket artillery systems and surface-to-air weapons, in addition to militant manpower.
Click to Enlarge
Kiev's success has been mixed. Prior to the end of the cease-fire, while maintaining pressure on Slovyansk, Ukrainian forces successfully advanced along two axes. The first was in the south, moving from west to east toward Donetsk. The second was in the northeast, moving north to south toward Luhansk. Over the course of a few weeks, these axes extended to the outskirts of the cities, which Ukrainian forces are now working to surround.
The push to further secure the border has met with much less success. In fact, Ukrainian forces have suffered several tactical defeats along the border. Ukrainian forces currently have full control of only 17 of the 30 border checkpoints along the Donetsk and Luhansk regional borders with Russia, and materiel and manpower continue to flow nearly uninterrupted from Russia into Ukraine. Furthermore, a number of secondary crossings are available to the militants. The border is long and difficult to enforce.
The most recent change in territorial control came after rebels withdrew from Slovyansk over the weekend of July 4. The control and resolute defense of this city by the rebels had stymied Ukrainian forces for weeks. Ukrainian military costs were high, and they gained little in return. While the rebels controlled Slovyansk and neighboring Kramatorsk, they found themselves increasingly cut off by Ukrainian ground and air operations, with their supply lines extending a considerable distance from the border and from the heart of rebel-controlled territory. Isolated, vulnerable and under the threat of complete encirclement, the rebels withdrew. The retreat opened a new axis of advance in the northwest for Ukrainian security forces, which have since been driving southeast over a 90-kilometer (55-mile) front. If it continues to be successful, this advance will drive on to Luhansk and Donetsk cities, effectively cutting off Donetsk and the western rebel-held sections from the east and from logistical supply lines that originate in Russia.
Government Forces and Rebel Resistance
The Ukrainian operation includes some 30,000 personnel drawn from various parts of the security forces and the military. Small, highly trained counterterrorism units from the Security Services of Ukraine have been combined with the newly formed National Guard, which incorporates many elements of the self-defense forces from the Euromaidan movement. These forces are supplemented with regular military airborne personnel and armor units, and all receive close air support from the air force, though its capabilities are limited.
The rebels counter with a smaller force. Of its estimated 10,000 members, only about 10 percent are thought to be professional fighters. The rebels present what is primarily an irregular force -- one initially armed with small arms, anti-tank missiles, mortars and man-portable air defense systems. These tools were effective at first -- rebels imposed costs on the Ukrainian military and stalled progress -- but with the government operation picking up steam, Russia has increased both the volume and the variety of the weapons it sends to the separatists.
This has made the rebels a deadlier force, but they are not on par with government forces in conventional warfare. This can be seen on the ground: Government forces have notched successes in the predominantly rural open terrain where their greater firepower, air capabilities and numerical superiority give them a slight advantage. But Slovyansk demonstrated the advantage the rebels hold as entrenched defenders of urban terrain. Donetsk, a larger city and the destination for many of the fighters who pulled out of Slovyansk, will likely prove a much harder objective for Ukrainian forces, and the battle there will be the next signpost for the performance of government forces. (Many of the more professional and capable units, such as the Vostok Battalion, have publicly announced their intent to fight hard for the city.) Luhansk would be even more difficult: Its proximity to the Russian border and the Ukrainian forces' inability to check the border flows of materiel will serve as a great advantage for rebel fighters. Generally speaking, the farther east government forces push, the harder the operation becomes as their supply lines extend and those of the rebels shrink.
The Russians therefore retain a considerable ability to influence events in eastern Ukraine. Moscow can send supplies, munitions, volunteers and intelligence operatives without openly involving itself in direct confrontations with Ukrainian forces. Depending on how much support the Russians offer, they can significantly alter the balance of power in eastern Ukraine and even, should the Kremlin decide to increase its aid, force Kiev onto the defensive.
Comments
Post a Comment