Alexander Hug (c), Deputy Chief Monitor of the OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, visits the crash site of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in separatist-held eastern Ukraine July 18.(DOMINIQUE FAGET/AFP/Getty Images)
Analysis
Editor's Note: After Ukraine spent years trying to negotiate an association agreement with the European Union, speculation abounded at the end of 2013 that the country was on the verge of stepping out of Russia's shadow and into the European Union's sphere of influence. Kiev seemed to be getting closer to signing the association agreement -- which would have tilted its foreign and security policies, justice and home affairs, and most important, its trade agreements toward Europe. But Russian pressure derailed negotiations at the end of November and then-President Viktor Yanukovich did not sign the agreement at the Eastern Partnership summit held in Vilnius from Nov. 27 to Nov. 29.
Pro-EU demonstrations erupted in Ukraine almost immediately. By the beginning of December, the anti-government protests had gotten bigger and Kiev responded with force. The situation remained tense -- sometimes simmering, at other times boiling over -- for more than a month. On Jan. 28, parliament held an extraordinary session to discuss the opposition's demands. Yanukovich made some limited concessions, but less than a month later he was ousted from power.
Under pressure and on the defensive, Russia moved into Crimea and by early March controlled the strategic peninsula. Pro-Russian regions throughout eastern Ukraine began demonstrating in support of Russia's moves, and many of these protests eventually turned into armed pro-Russian separatist movements supported by the Kremlin.
Below is a selection of Stratfor analyses since the emergence of the crisis in Ukraine in November through the attack that brought down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 on July 17. Throughout this selection, readers will observe the ebb and flow of Russian and European influence on this fringe country.
Nov. 21, 2013: The Ukrainian parliament decided not to let prisoners seek medical attention abroad, thus keeping former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko behind bars. Releasing Timoshenko was one of the preconditions to signing an association agreement with the European Union. Talks between Kiev and Brussels were effectively terminated, meaning that Ukraine would continue its historical strategy of balancing relations between Europe and Russia.
Dec. 2, 2013: Following Yanukovich's decision not to sign the association agreement with the European Union, pro-EU demonstrations emerged and spread. After limited containment, the anti-government protests reignited a few days later and were much more organized, with tents, formal barricades, portable toilets and leaders.
Jan. 28, 2014: Following the government's violent crackdown, persistent and violent protests prompted the Ukrainian parliament to hold a special session to try to defuse the countrywide political crisis. Yanukovich made some key concessions, including repealing recently passed anti-protest laws. But the government still faced major constraints from the more radical demonstrators, as well as from rival East-West interests, in shaping the country's political evolution.
Feb. 22, 2014: Despite escalating protests in Kiev and increasing calls for Yanukovich to step down, the president refused to resign. On the night of Feb. 21, he traveled to the pro-Russian northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv to try to drum up support while demonstrators were taking control of the capital. The following day, in a move that was at first deemed unlawful, the Ukrainian parliament declared Yanukovich constitutionally unfit to carry out his duties and he was ousted from power.
Feb. 28, 2014: Within just a few days, rumors emerged that unidentified, Russian-backed groups were taking over two airports in Crimea, likely to prevent the interim government in Kiev (which Moscow considered illegitimate) from flying forces in to reinforce local security units. The troops' equipment, demeanor and vehicles strongly indicated that Russian military forces were staging outside their principal naval base in Sevastopol, an act that from Kiev's perspective would constitute a Russian intervention on Ukrainian soil.
The Strategic Importance of Crimea
March 3, 2014: With Crimea under Russian military control, the center of gravity of the Ukrainian crisis shifted to the pro-Russian eastern part of the country -- the industrial and economic heartland of Ukraine -- where anti-government and pro-Russian demonstrations were held in Donetsk, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk.
April 7, 2014: A few demonstrators continued occupying some of the regional administration buildings in Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk that were stormed by pro-Russian protesters the day before. A key difference in the rallies of April 6 was the presence of armed men, reportedly carrying AK-74s in Donetsk and Luhansk and handguns in Kharkiv. These men appeared to have training and experience in handling such weapons. Meanwhile, protesters in Donetsk called for a referendum on the region's independence for May 11 and asked Russia to deploy a peacekeeping force to protect the voting process.
April 14, 2014: Russia reminded Kiev of its significant leverage ahead of negotiations scheduled for April 17. On the weekend of April 12-13, unidentified protesters stormed and occupied government buildings and police stations across eastern Ukraine. They now controlled buildings in at least six towns, including Donetsk, Kharkiv and the port city of Mariupol. In the town of Slovyansk, masked gunmen exchanged fire with Ukrainian security forces, leading to casualties on both sides, and set up checkpoints on roads leading to the town.
April 15, 2014: Ukrainian security forces launched an operation against pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. The operation was preceded by a buildup of Ukrainian forces, fuel and supplies in Izyum, a city about 50 kilometers (30 miles) northwest of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. From Izyum, a mechanized force of reportedly 500 personnel advanced toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk and set up checkpoints to isolate and contain the area. Afterward, Ukraine's security service raided an airfield in the area.
Conversation: Understanding Putin's Logic
May 2, 2014: A temporary halt in Ukraine's military campaign due to diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis in the region ended. Two Mi-24 helicopters were shot down with what were believed to be man-portable air defense systems. Weapons used by armed groups in the region were mostly small arms, though there were unconfirmed reports of a group in Slovyansk using rocket-propelled grenades. Security forces dismantled some checkpoints and wrested control of an airfield in nearby Kramatorsk from separatists but, at the time, were unable to penetrate farther into the city of Slovyansk.
May 7, 2014: Severe unrest facilitated, or at least encouraged, by Russia continued in Odessa. A couple of hundred pro-Russian demonstrators clashed with up to 1,500 pro-Western demonstrators on May 2 near the House of Trade Unions in Odessa, a port city of strategic importance to Kiev and the wider region. The violence resulted in a fire that killed more than 40 pro-Russian demonstrators, and another 100 were detained at a local police station. Two days later, a pro-Russian crowd gathered at the police station, forced its way in and released more than 60 of those being held, then left. The protesters used rudimentary tools while storming the police station; they were not organized or armed, and the police put up little resistance.
May 27, 2014: Ukraine's military took back control of the Donetsk airport. Largely devoid of civilians after separatists took over, the Donetsk airport essentially became a free-fire zone for the approximately eight Mi-24 attack helicopters dispatched to attack the separatist positions. The Ukrainian air force contributed to the attack with fixed-wing airstrikes. Equipped mostly with small arms and in largely static positions, the separatists appeared to have taken heavy losses.
June 3, 2014: The Ukrainian government announced that it would launch the next stage of a campaign in the east, focusing on Slovyansk. Meanwhile, shifts were taking place among separatist groups. In Donetsk, separatist groups initially consisted mostly of armed locals with little military training or hardware. But by early June, the Vostok Battalion emerged. This group, like its counterparts in Slovyansk, carries weapons indicative of Russian support; but unlike some of the Donetsk militants, Vostok members are known to have arrived from Russia. In Luhansk, however, separatists did not display the kind of professional military skills or weaponry found in Donetsk and Slovyansk, though they had not yet been in a direct military confrontation with the Ukrainian forces.
June 18, 2014: Ukraine's newly elected president, Petro Poroshenko, announced that he was planning to order a brief, unilateral cease-fire in eastern Ukraine. His statement came a day after a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but separatist and Russian leaders still criticized it. Officials from the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic rejected the peace plan outright, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov complained that the cease-fire would not be permanent.
Conversation: Ukraine's Ineffective Cease-Fire
June 27, 2014: Two explosions occurred on a railroad bridge north of Luhansk, a separatist stronghold. Though separatists blew up a modest number of bridges and railway lines in May and early June, this time they undertook a new and more ambitious campaign of demolition; over a period of five days, they bombed more than a dozen railways. The separatists took advantage of the temporary cease-fire to target strategic infrastructure and isolate their strongholds in case hostilities resumed.
July 1, 2014: After several days of diplomatic efforts led by France and Germany, Poroshenko ended the 10-day cease-fire and forestalled its extension. A few hours later, the Ukrainian military reactivated troops in the east and launched airstrikes against rebel strongholds. Fighting was reported near Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Donetsk.
July 3, 2014: Another convoy of armored vehicles was filmed rolling down a road in eastern Ukraine this week. This time, the convoy included three BMP infantry fighting vehicles and an MT-LB auxiliary armored tracked vehicle. This group of vehicles was the latest demonstration of the separatist rebels' ability to acquire significant weaponry and deploy it against Ukrainian security forces. Though the separatists claim they commandeered the equipment from the Ukrainian army, some weapons almost undoubtedly came across the border from Russia.
July 4-6, 2014: After months of conflict, pro-Russian forces withdrew from Slovyansk, the separatist stronghold that had been the main focus of the Kiev government's military operation. The rebels fled their bases and checkpoints in Slovyansk and the surrounding areas, but rather than cross the border into Russia, many instead joined forces with pro-Russian separatists in and around Donetsk to continue fighting.
July 17, 2014: At 4:21 p.m. local time, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, a Boeing 777 flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur and carrying 298 people, crashed in Ukraine's Donetsk province. The plane was reportedly flying at its cruising altitude of 10,000 meters (33,000 feet), which means that only medium- to long-range surface-to-air missiles could have shot it down. According to an unconfirmed audio intercept by the Security Service of Ukraine, a pro-Russian rebel group based in Chernukhino, Luhansk province, is responsible for the crash. This came a day after two Ukrainian military Su-25 planes were shot at in Donetsk province and only a few days after a Ukrainian An-26 was shot down in Luhansk province.
Comments
Post a Comment